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Cake day: June 20th, 2023

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  • No - this is about credible defense policy. As such, all that needs to be done is to adhere to the lines, and then actually and promptly follow through. Have a clear and credible path of escalation:

    • notify Russia that any aircraft, drones, or missiles that cross from Russian or Belarusian airspace into any NATO airspace will be shot down, without warning
    • shoot down, without warning, any aircraft, drones, or missiles that cross from Russian or Belarusian airspace into any NATO airspace
    • notify Russia that any additional intrusions will be viewed as attacks, and that any subsequent intrusions will have their launch points or airbases rendered mission-ineffective
    • render any airbases or launch points that are the origin of subsequent intrusions mission-ineffective

    This is a level of realpolitik that the Russians will absolutely understand.



  • It’s a direct result of relying almost entirely on the US Military as the “find out” part. That was a fine policy when there wasn’t much to do, but turns out that it’s not a great idea when US domestic politics become incredibly polarized and unpredictable, and whiplash wildly depending on which party gains power. The fact that this wasn’t used as rationale to improve European defense over the last decade or so - specifically, after the 2016 election - is utterly insane to me. Now, everyone’s scrambling around and panicking about how to defend stuff without the US - that is, assuming they’ve even admitted that US isolationism is a thing that’s not going away, which is its own unique flavor of insane myopicism.