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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • It is always good to not look at what geopolitcal actors say, but what they do. For example the Make in Europe initative, the massive trade deals with Mercosur, India and a lot of other countries and blocks recently, a move towards local weapons and software purchases, working on replacing Visa and Mastercard with the digital Euro and so forth.

    European countries were in general close allies of the US. That created a close reliance, which can not be cut without a lot of pain overnight. The biggest issue seems to be Russia right now. Having the US as a NATO member at least on paper defending members against Russia is usefull. As are the ability to purchase some American weapons, without European alternatives or with too low production numbers like Patriot. The smart move is to reduce the dependence on the US steadily, while not causing too many big breaks, which hurt Europe.

    Probably a good comparison is what happened with Russia after the full scale invasion. A lot of yelling at each other. Massive fights on different positions and then half a year later the EU mostly cut off Russian fossil fuels, managed to set up a steady supply of arms and other aid to Ukraine, provide support for millions of refugees and so forth.


  • There is such a thing as Europe. Not just as a continent, but as a political and cultural block. The main actor being the European Union, which is somewhere between the closest alliance and the weakest federation in the world. One key part about the EU is that it has strength somewhat independ from the members governments. The main parts of that are the European Comission and Parliament. The European Union then has a close sphere of influence mainly defined by the countries actively working on joing the EU and the EEA. Somewhat also the UK, which is in a weird position due to Brexit.

    All of that is actually also chaning from an identity point of view. As in people see themself as citizens of Europe and their indiviual country. Even the far right is moving on that, with the more moderate(and they are still evil) no longer questioning the EU as such, but rather how it works. You can also see the European flag flown at protests in a lot of different places like for example Georgia.





  • We can only judge by Iran’s response, and since they’re making a cohesive military counterattack by bombing US Bases, we can see the country hasn’t lost its leadership.

    Iran has not been able to do that. So far we have seen low number of missiles attacking individual bases. Anybody including Iran knows that you want to launch as many missiles as possible at the same time against a target, so air defense can not deal with all of them. They have done that in the past, but not this time.

    The other part is that Iran seems to know that a good number of Arab countries have closed their air space to the US. This includes the UAE. So there being Shahed attacks against Dubai is really really stupid from a strategic point of view. The UAE could easily allow them to actually use the air space or they even have a territorial conflict over some islands. It is not like Iran could do much, if the UAE took them back right now.








  • France Dassault wants 80% of the workshare on FCAS. Germany and Spain absolutly do not like that idea, as they themself want significant shares in the project, including leadership on subsystems. So it currently looks like the entire project breaks up and Airbus builts a plane for Germany and Spain and France goes solo. However Airbus has never fully built a fighter jet(they have been part of Eurofighter though), so it might take time. Obviously buying American F35 is also on the table, as they are the only actually working 5th Gen fighter jets Germany might buy.

    It has to be said, that FCAS might still be saved and the F35 purchase is being talked about and nothing more atm.






  • 2/3 of global trade is done in US dollars. However a lot of that has currency risk, like say Chinese companies paying their Chinese workers in yuan. So if the dollar looses value compared to other currencies, the old contracts can lead to exporters selling their products for less then they are worth. That is not a good situation to be in for a lot of companies.

    In other words Northern Rock would be a joke compared to this.