You can bet on basically everything somewhere. The betting market is the way to go if you want real odds of what’s happening tomorrow. They have a financial incentive to be accurate (half-joking).

Because it’s about the discussion and exchange of information & ideas, not about individuals.

Whilst I agree in principle (since hereditary monarchies are inherently anti-meritocratic), there is actually a strong argument for constitutional and apolitical figurehead monarchs (i.e mostly powerless). They serve as something of an antidote to cults of personality and can also act as a uniting force in times of crisis.

Rule 1: be decent

Rule 2: follow rule 1

Some of them definitely. According to Dr HA Hellyer who was interviewed for the article:

“I keep hearing this from different people connected to the ground on Gaza that there’s a mini civil war brewing between Hamas and anti-Hamas figures,” he said.

“But the anti-Hamas figures aren’t people like the Palestinian Authority; the anti-Hamas figures are collaborationist forces with the Israelis."

“From what I’m hearing, Hamas seem to also be going after traditional families and traditional tribes that simply don’t want Hamas to be in charge, not because they’re getting support from the Israelis, but that they just don’t like Hamas.”

Interesting although contentious letter detailing an estimate of potential indirect conflict deaths (it includes potential future deaths).

However, it seems rather simplistic and/or flawed. They simply multiply the casualties Hamas have reported by a “conservative” x4 multiplier which then gives their number. The multiplier comes from this publication and states that most of the casualties are “indirect and caused mainly by preventable infectious diseases, malnutrition, and neonatal- and pregnancy-related conditions that emerged in the resource-poor post-conflict environment.” - which means that this number includes post-conflict casualties that have not yet happened and are preventable. Furthermore, the base number already includes a lot of indirect civilian deaths, and unlike the other conflicts that the x4 multiplier comes from is heavily reported on and followed by media/authorities.

This article from Die Welte is more recent and examines a more robust study.

Still, even if we took the estimate provided by the Lancet here at face value, OP’s claim of “millions of people” looks like absurd misinfo to me.

millions of people

Where did you source this data? Based on mainstream sources (UN, OCHA, B’Tselem) the number of Arabs displaced from modern day Israel/former territories of Mandatory Palestine from '47 until 2025 are between 995 - 1’105’000 and the number of casualties 67 - 105’000.

As a comparison, the number of Jews displaced from Arab countries during the same period number somewhere between 800-900’000.

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…because they believe those reports to be exaggerated, false, or both.

Thank you for taking the time to explain your position. I hadn’t seen their latest report until now.

Most of the above figures have been similar (and I think rather understandable if unfortunate) since oct. 7, but the increased support for forced expulsion & Katz plan is worrying.

Realistically it seems that there won’t be a negotiated end to the war between Israel & Hamas, I instead expect an enforced peace where Hamas never surrenders and Gaza instead is put under complete Israeli military occupation until (long term) a semi-autonomous civilian regime is set up similar to the W.B.

Of note, I have previously and still do find this one:

Oppose peace negotiations with the Palestinian Authority.

to be a bit of an odd pre-oct. 7 relic. It doesn’t really apply to the current war in Gaza since the PA isn’t a participant. At the very least they should run a separate, similar question regarding Hamas to get a fair assessment of support for a negotiated end to the current war.

Tel Aviv University Peace Index

Yes I’ve read several of their reports a whule bacj. Most Israelis (particularly Jewish ones but also many Arab Israelis) and Gazans are very pessimistic about the prospects for peace, tied to not believing the other side to be trustworthy, particularly since Oct. 7.

believe the most heinous shit

You’ll have to elaborate on that, because you’re (A) generalizing to a very large group with very diverse views & opinions and (B) rather vague.

That’s surprising

Why do you think that?

Swedish citizen - not Swedish. It’s frankly appalling that integration has been handled so poorly that there are people who’ve grown up in the country since childhood, yet haven’t even the most basic values of Swedish culture. A failure on so many levels.

This is what inevitably happens when freedom of thought, speech and expression is limited for essentially any reason. Once the tools are in place, they will be used, abused and inevitably end up in the hands of someone you disagree with.

Doing something that gets your org banned by a government that isn’t even the one you’re protesting seems not only ineffective but counterproductive to me.

Censorship laws in the UK are quite dystopian, but even in less authoritarian countries, this kind of action would result in serious consequences.

that equipment was being used to further a genocide against the Palestinian people.

[Citation needed]

Finding out part of fucking around.

Countries don’t usually take kindly to people or organizations that break into military bases and vandalize equipment.

Tehran Times is completely untrustworthy in this context, they’re - essentially a propaganda outlet for the islamist theocratic regime in Tehran. Given that they make such an absurd claim and that it hasn’t been independently verified - this is likely false.

See link below regarding Tehran Times:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehran_Times#cite_note-regime-1

Here’s the short version (yes, this is incomplete because even writing this is a small essay. If somebody feels like adding context please do so), to answer your question on the background to their statement & position. The position is fairly common outside Lemmy at least.

History, history, history… (very long story)

2022: Israel was working on normalizing relations with the Arab countries. Things are relatively peaceful in the ME, albeit pretty shit for Arabs in Gaza & WB, not a warzone though. This succeeding would have been a threat to the Iranian network of terrorist organizations (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, groups in Syria such as the IRGC).

Iran pushes forth October 7 to reignite tensions, training Hamas operatives & such.

Hamas attacks Israel on Oct. 7 kicking off the war - other Iranian proxy groups soon join in. Initially there is no direct conflict between Israel & Iran.

2024 april - IDF strikes the Iranian consulate in Syria to take senior officers in the Hezbollah chain of command and assassinates several others. Iran retaliates with missiles against with strikes against Israel proper.

After that, tit for tat strikes in increasing magnitude and escalations which have culminated in the current situation. No, it was not surprising, this conflict was always fundamentally between Israel & Iran and has been slowly escalating for a long time.

It’s targeting testosterone level, which varies by person and there are cis women with higher levels than some men.

I’m going to stop you right there. Given changes that are slowly permeating both language and legal systems across the world, “man” or “woman” doesn’t really have anything to do with biology anymore, nor are terms like “cis” or “trans” really relevant to biology (more so a persons current legal/presenting gender compared to the one they were assigned at birth). As such they aren’t useful terms when discussing in the context of what biologically is normal with regards to hormone levels.

The terms that do exist and are relevant (at least in English, my other native language doesn’t have separate words for sex and gender which can complicate medical discussions and also makes folks more attached to the biological definition -_-) are male, female and intersex. When looking at a healthy human female they won’t have anywhere near the testosterone levels of a healthy male - it’s a 5x order of magnitude between the upper female and lower male ranges, even when accounting for PCO/S - which isn’t necessarily unhealthy, but just that extra 10-20% outside the normal female range can be enough to start having effects such as growing facial hair in puberty. The gap - along with XY individuals with low testosterone and XX individuals with high testosterone are those who end up developing in an intersex manner, in one way or another (this is already during the fetal stage).

Honestly I feel like we’re getting far from the original conversation here, but it’s part of what makes these topics so inherently difficult. Balancing between how sensitive some people can find the topic on a social level (particularly when having dealt with actual bad actors), the huge risk of misinterpretations/miscommunications and then the medical field dealing with the biological situation that ultimately is the basis of all this. Evaluating these topics is amongst the most difficult ethical dilemmas we have in the field - right up there with human euthanasia and I don’t think there can be a single “right” answer. You’re going to end up with different people being hurt wherever the balance is struck and that really, really sucks.