Just to lessen to concern about the permafrost viruses. Those viruses are frozen since very long ago, and are certainly not adapted to any life as it is now on the planet or especially in the area they are found. Which also means, unlikely to infect a human just because they come in contact.
Of course viruses can adapt, but this basically has a similar risk as the bird flu jumping over to humans. Potentially even less since these viruses may not even be able to infect any lifeforms from the start.
Isn’t that non-adaptation a double-edged sword? Sure, the viruses aren’t adapted to humans. But likewise humans aren’t adapted to these forms of viruses. So while the chances of infection may be lower, the immune system won’t have any adequate answer to it.
No, that’s not really how it works. They are still “conventional” viruses and the immune system is as good or as bad against them as against others. They still need to infect to be successful themselves and that chance is definitely lower.
Chance of infection is a bit of a binary choice, they cannot just infect a cell in your body “a little bit”. They are either adapted or not. Now if they manage to jump into an animal that is close to what they originally infected, then mutate enough within those animals to get close to infecting a human, then we might have a problem on our hands. But as I said, we already have that with e.g. the bird flu.
That’s interesting. Last year I visited an exhibition in Windischeschenbach / Germany where they drilled a hole that is more than 9000 meters deep to analyze the layers of the soil. There they said that they also penetrated several water basins while drilling that were completely isolated for billions of years. Still they didn’t find a single biologist willing to analyze these water samples. The reason that was given to me was that the liquid may contain completely unknown and highly dangerous bacteria, viruses etc.
Permafrost to me is quite similar to these underground water basins in terms of isolation over a long period of time. So that’s what I based my original claim on.
But I’m neither an expert in geology nor biology, so I can’t judge the potential risk.
I mean, it’s not wrong. There is a chance and obviously a scientist might not want responsibility over securing samples properly. It’s just the chance of something bad happening is really low and certainly much lower than any doomsday person is making up.
It seems like you’re talking about viruses that are new to us, unadapted as you’ve said.
I would suggest that the concern is more for these viruses that don’t need to adapt, such as polio. Viruses that humans have been getting all along, but now the melting permafrost is a new, surprise vector. As well, there are viruses that are perhaps unknown to us, but which were not unknown to our ancestors. Such a viruses may be laying dormant in the permafrost, and ready to wipe us out. No adaptation required.
I did not know this. Thanks for the nightmare fuel.
Just to lessen to concern about the permafrost viruses. Those viruses are frozen since very long ago, and are certainly not adapted to any life as it is now on the planet or especially in the area they are found. Which also means, unlikely to infect a human just because they come in contact.
Of course viruses can adapt, but this basically has a similar risk as the bird flu jumping over to humans. Potentially even less since these viruses may not even be able to infect any lifeforms from the start.
Isn’t that non-adaptation a double-edged sword? Sure, the viruses aren’t adapted to humans. But likewise humans aren’t adapted to these forms of viruses. So while the chances of infection may be lower, the immune system won’t have any adequate answer to it.
No, that’s not really how it works. They are still “conventional” viruses and the immune system is as good or as bad against them as against others. They still need to infect to be successful themselves and that chance is definitely lower.
Chance of infection is a bit of a binary choice, they cannot just infect a cell in your body “a little bit”. They are either adapted or not. Now if they manage to jump into an animal that is close to what they originally infected, then mutate enough within those animals to get close to infecting a human, then we might have a problem on our hands. But as I said, we already have that with e.g. the bird flu.
That’s interesting. Last year I visited an exhibition in Windischeschenbach / Germany where they drilled a hole that is more than 9000 meters deep to analyze the layers of the soil. There they said that they also penetrated several water basins while drilling that were completely isolated for billions of years. Still they didn’t find a single biologist willing to analyze these water samples. The reason that was given to me was that the liquid may contain completely unknown and highly dangerous bacteria, viruses etc.
Permafrost to me is quite similar to these underground water basins in terms of isolation over a long period of time. So that’s what I based my original claim on.
But I’m neither an expert in geology nor biology, so I can’t judge the potential risk.
I mean, it’s not wrong. There is a chance and obviously a scientist might not want responsibility over securing samples properly. It’s just the chance of something bad happening is really low and certainly much lower than any doomsday person is making up.
Ugh, BORING! They apparently passed up on the opportunity to do real life The Andromeda Strain!
Give it here I’ll drink it.
E: Taste identical to Glacial Cherry Gatorade.
It seems like you’re talking about viruses that are new to us, unadapted as you’ve said.
I would suggest that the concern is more for these viruses that don’t need to adapt, such as polio. Viruses that humans have been getting all along, but now the melting permafrost is a new, surprise vector. As well, there are viruses that are perhaps unknown to us, but which were not unknown to our ancestors. Such a viruses may be laying dormant in the permafrost, and ready to wipe us out. No adaptation required.
Thanks for the clarification!