Donald Trump has pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as early as Monday morning in a “humanitarian gesture”. The US president declared that “Project Freedom” was meant to “free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong”, who he called “victims of circumstance”. It comes after Trump said on Saturday that there was a “possibility” he could order renewed strikes against Iran. Iran’s military warned the US against taking such action, declaring it retained security control over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the decision comes as his representatives were having “very positive discussions” with Iran, who reportedly issued the US president a one-month deadline for negotiations on its proposed deal to reopen the strait and bring an end to the war. However, Ibrahim Azizi, a senior Iranian lawmaker, has warned that US involvement in managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would constitute a violation of the ceasefire.

  • wuffah@lemmy.world
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    9 hours ago

    Not only can Trump decidedly not “open the strait”, he may not even be able to order strikes for much longer. China is strategically cutting off rare earth minerals and raw materials vital to US weapons manufacturing:

    China holds all the cards and knows how to play them. Gallium and germanium controls came in August 2023. Antimony controls came in August 2024, with a full ban of shipments to the United States in December 2024. As a result, antimony prices surged by 134%. Tungsten restrictions were imposed in February 2025; the price skyrocketed by over 557% per metric ton. Then MOFCOM Announcement No. 18 of April 4, 2025, placed seven medium and heavy rare earths under discretionary licensing. Chinese rare-earth magnet exports were curtailed by 74% the following month. In October 2025, Beijing extended the regime extraterritorially to any product, anywhere in the world, containing as little as 0.1% of Chinese-origin rare earths.

    https://fortune.com/2026/04/30/us-missile-stockpile-depleted-iran-ukraine-china-rare-earths-restock/

    If you wanted to destroy the United States militarily, pissing off China in a trade war and then depleting strategic stockpiles of advanced weaponry in a catastrophically frivolous war would be a fantastic strategy. This is after stifling trade further with a bizarre play at also blockading the Strait, and insulting Europe even as they honor their prior defense agreements while Trump hamfistedly tries to maneuver into blaming them for his monumental “strategic” blunders. I use “strategic” here in the loosest possible terms because every military strategist, analyst, administration, and world leader would tell you that no one has tried to dislodge the Iranian regime for the past 50 years because of exactly what is continuing to play out, like some kind of waking absurdist nightmare.

    I can’t tell if he’s actively making impossibly stupid decisions on purpose, or if he just saw Putin’s egotistical meat grinder in Ukraine and decided he wanted one too. Maybe he’ll threaten to invade China after he realizes how many exotic materials we import from them.

    • AbsolutelyNotAVelociraptor@piefed.social
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      1 hour ago

      I can’t tell if he’s actively making impossibly stupid decisions on purpose, or if he just saw Putin’s egotistical meat grinder in Ukraine and decided he wanted one too. Maybe he’ll threaten to invade China after he realizes how many exotic materials we import from them.

      There’s a third option: he is actively trying to destroy the US from the inside so the epstein class can then buy everything for pennies.

      At a certain point, you really start asking yourself about it. Even the dumbest one will eventually do something right, but to do the wrong thing every single time requires intent.

      • wuffah@lemmy.world
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        1 hour ago

        Here’s what I don’t get: I can understand this for financial markets and material assets, but the military? It seems counter productive to cripple the US government, then buy and rule with devalued hard and soft power that can’t easily be clawed back.

        Trump’s brains are scrambling in front of our eyes like a live dementia lobotomy, but the rest of his family and cohorts are doing the same as him. I don’t think any of these people are fit to run a popsicle stand, but at the same time they also seem to hate popsicle stands and popsicle enjoyers with a generational burning passion while kleptomanically looting the cash box.

        I am not a psychologist, but it really seems like these people simply can’t help themselves. They’ve been programmed to just automatically do whatever their hateful, pathologically self-centered minds tell them to do in the moment, and we’re seeing the emergent effects of a critical mass of narcissists operating in a system that has had all of the safety checks engineered out with bribery. The intent is definitely there, but I think it’s more a function of their narcissistic rage at being told not to abuse us.

      • Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works
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        6 hours ago

        Not if they are also a malignant narcissist, it looks exactly like we are seeing.

        Its like a battle between Ocamm and Hanlon’s razors. Without Hanlon’s razor, and using Occam’s, it’s obviously for the benefit of Russia. But once you introduce Hanlon’s razor Occams becomes weaker.