The real shock to Americans will be when they discover this can’t be fixed.
Americans want to believe that relations will return to normal once the democrats are back in power. But, they don’t understand that the loss of trust in the US is permanent. Sure, if the democrats take back power and want to negotiate trade deals, other countries may sign them. They’re just not going to believe that the US can be trusted to honour the terms of those trade deals, and will structure the deals accordingly. Trump’s 2 terms show that a treaty signed by the US is meaningless, because a president like Trump can come along and just rip it up. They’ve also showed that support for someone Trump-like is close enough to 50% that it can easily happen again.
The momentum of international trade, and the vast power the US wields means that there won’t be a sudden cutting off of the US. But, bit by bit, even former staunch allies are going to start slowly pivoting away from the US whenever possible no matter who’s elected and how big a landslide it is.
Americans do not take the situation seriously. They either think they have no power to personally fix it, so contributing to any effort is pointless, or that it’s just more of the same politics as before and can’t tell the difference. They are encouraged to stay out of the way because they are the only force that seems to be capable of stopping it at this point.
Once Trump and the GOP destroy the framework of power the constitution defines, there are no rules anymore, only power, and the constitution really does mean nothing. The relationship America built with the world since WW1 will be over and won’t return as democratic nations can not remain interdependent with a fascist America. America will be another authoritarian regime using violence as the solution to every problem, including domestic problems. Those problems will only increase because an authoritarian leadership is functionally incapable of managing a non-authoritarian system. America will transition, painfully and violently, to a fascist state and the dream that was America will be dead. All at the hands of a TV show personality and the generations raised by TV, which is both sad and painfully American.
i mean, some of us legitimately have next to no power. or have good operational security.
me, i have 3,000 miles distance between me and krasnov at any given time and putting in a lisa novak style cannonball run would be sure to tip someone or something off. I’m going to leave it to someone closer.
This is the other problem with Americans. You think the next step after words is going in guns blazing. Your media is full of it, so it’s no wonder you’re brainwashed into believing it. It’s why there are so many mass shootings. Someone disagrees with someone else and reaches for his gun.
That’s not the next step. The next steps are to organize, protest, disrupt, disobey, obstruct. You can do all that from your own city.
Good. Obviously it was wrong to trust the US this entire time. It’s time to dismantle the post-WW2 American dominance over the world, and move toward a more multilateral future. This process feels scary and might be quite difficult, but it’s important and it’s time. No one country should be considered the world’s policeman or supreme authority. I just hope that everyone shaking their head at the US realizes that they can only sit there doing that for so long, because the very next thing they need to urgently do is step the fuck up into that leadership vacuum before dictators do.
Will it really be a multilateral future though? Or will it be a Chinese future?
A multilateral future would be great, but multilateral alliances aren’t very stable. Just look at how Orban is disrupting what the EU wants to do, even though Hungary is a relatively small and weak country in Europe. Or, look how toothless European regulations are when Ireland just refuses to enforce things like the GDPR, so the tech companies just declare themselves as Irish.
Meanwhile China seems very unified and their mixture of a command economy and a market economy has been very effective so far. I don’t think the Chinese model is all bad. They’ve been massively effective at doing things like building high speed rail, developing and deploying solar panels, etc. OTOH, the Great Firewall and CCTV state is not how I would like to live.
Without the US, I don’t know how well the rest of the world will be able to resist China. I think Australia might be the canary in the coal mine. I think China considers Australia to be in its sphere of influence and will try to put more and more pressure on it. Australia’s outlook on the world is much more similar to Europe, but it’s geographically really far away.
“Multilateral” may include a very powerful China. The two are not mutually exclusive. China has been very prolific already in exerting its soft power around the world. They probably do stand to gain from the US losing standing. However I very much doubt that the US losing standing will immediately lead to total Chinese dominance around the globe. China has a lot to deal with, surviving its impending demographic apocalypse. There was a time we feared Japan in the same way: nonstop economy, strong culture, they bought a lot of American assets and real estate… soon they’ll take over the world! They’re still here, and very powerful, but the “big bad” fears were overblown. I think similarly, China wants its historic provinces back, and would like to exert the same kind of influence over Asia that it once did, and be a global trade power, but all of that put together is still far less than the imperialism which America has actually achieved and maintained around the world. So yeah, an ascendant China may be one feature of this future but I don’t see the problem with that. I don’t start from a position of hating and fearing China.
the US losing standing will immediately lead to total Chinese dominance around the globe
The US didn’t have total dominance around the globe either. They just had a lot of soft power, a lot more than any other country.
There was a time we feared Japan in the same way
Sure, but Japan was always relatively small. It was a country with a low population and few natural resources. China is a huge country with nearly 10% of the world’s population and is one of the largest countries in the world. There are no guarantees that it will still be a major force in 10 or 20 years, but it’s different from Japan which was a relatively small country that had a temporary niche in manufacturing certain kinds of goods.
The biggest issue with China is that they don’t believe in the right to free speech and free expression. While the US has been more of an outlier in allowing unfettered free speech until recently, free speech and free expression is pretty central to European identity.
US didn’t have total dominance around the globe either. They just had a lot of soft power
The US has military bases, nuclear subs and aircraft carriers stationed around the world. That’s a little more than soft power. And our military spending has always been outsized.
Sure, but Japan was always relatively small. It was a country with a low population and few natural resources.
This stopped being the yardstick for influence around WW1. Japan has the number 4 GDP in the world right now and they were number 2 for a while, very close to the US. China’s landmass and population don’t mean much to the rest of the world if all they represent is impoverished agrarians, which fairly describes a lot of China still.
The biggest issue with China is that they don’t believe in the right to free speech and free expression.
They don’t. They believe in collectivism and order. However I don’t know that they aspire to bring Hanification to me here in California. Their ambitions are more regional. The US definitely reached around the entire globe.
While the US has been more of an outlier in allowing unfettered free speech
For whom though? This is more myth than reality. The US deposed democratically elected leaders all over South America, and has supported dictators around the world if they offer us resources or control. Look at the Middle East. China has a long long way to go before they even begin to be as scary as the US has been for the last 50 years.
free expression is pretty central to European identity.
I’m not sure what “European identity” has to do with this conversation, which has been more about the US and China. I worry that we are veering into vague concepts like “western civilization” that are more myths for white supremacists than actual entities.
The real shock to Americans will be when they discover this can’t be fixed.
Americans want to believe that relations will return to normal once the democrats are back in power. But, they don’t understand that the loss of trust in the US is permanent. Sure, if the democrats take back power and want to negotiate trade deals, other countries may sign them. They’re just not going to believe that the US can be trusted to honour the terms of those trade deals, and will structure the deals accordingly. Trump’s 2 terms show that a treaty signed by the US is meaningless, because a president like Trump can come along and just rip it up. They’ve also showed that support for someone Trump-like is close enough to 50% that it can easily happen again.
The momentum of international trade, and the vast power the US wields means that there won’t be a sudden cutting off of the US. But, bit by bit, even former staunch allies are going to start slowly pivoting away from the US whenever possible no matter who’s elected and how big a landslide it is.
Americans do not take the situation seriously. They either think they have no power to personally fix it, so contributing to any effort is pointless, or that it’s just more of the same politics as before and can’t tell the difference. They are encouraged to stay out of the way because they are the only force that seems to be capable of stopping it at this point.
Once Trump and the GOP destroy the framework of power the constitution defines, there are no rules anymore, only power, and the constitution really does mean nothing. The relationship America built with the world since WW1 will be over and won’t return as democratic nations can not remain interdependent with a fascist America. America will be another authoritarian regime using violence as the solution to every problem, including domestic problems. Those problems will only increase because an authoritarian leadership is functionally incapable of managing a non-authoritarian system. America will transition, painfully and violently, to a fascist state and the dream that was America will be dead. All at the hands of a TV show personality and the generations raised by TV, which is both sad and painfully American.
Edit: Not enough Americans…
i mean, some of us legitimately have next to no power. or have good operational security.
me, i have 3,000 miles distance between me and krasnov at any given time and putting in a lisa novak style cannonball run would be sure to tip someone or something off. I’m going to leave it to someone closer.
This is the other problem with Americans. You think the next step after words is going in guns blazing. Your media is full of it, so it’s no wonder you’re brainwashed into believing it. It’s why there are so many mass shootings. Someone disagrees with someone else and reaches for his gun.
That’s not the next step. The next steps are to organize, protest, disrupt, disobey, obstruct. You can do all that from your own city.
Just be a part of a group who are trying. That’s it. Nobody needs to action hero a solution with a fist fight finale.
Good. Obviously it was wrong to trust the US this entire time. It’s time to dismantle the post-WW2 American dominance over the world, and move toward a more multilateral future. This process feels scary and might be quite difficult, but it’s important and it’s time. No one country should be considered the world’s policeman or supreme authority. I just hope that everyone shaking their head at the US realizes that they can only sit there doing that for so long, because the very next thing they need to urgently do is step the fuck up into that leadership vacuum before dictators do.
Will it really be a multilateral future though? Or will it be a Chinese future?
A multilateral future would be great, but multilateral alliances aren’t very stable. Just look at how Orban is disrupting what the EU wants to do, even though Hungary is a relatively small and weak country in Europe. Or, look how toothless European regulations are when Ireland just refuses to enforce things like the GDPR, so the tech companies just declare themselves as Irish.
Meanwhile China seems very unified and their mixture of a command economy and a market economy has been very effective so far. I don’t think the Chinese model is all bad. They’ve been massively effective at doing things like building high speed rail, developing and deploying solar panels, etc. OTOH, the Great Firewall and CCTV state is not how I would like to live.
Without the US, I don’t know how well the rest of the world will be able to resist China. I think Australia might be the canary in the coal mine. I think China considers Australia to be in its sphere of influence and will try to put more and more pressure on it. Australia’s outlook on the world is much more similar to Europe, but it’s geographically really far away.
“Multilateral” may include a very powerful China. The two are not mutually exclusive. China has been very prolific already in exerting its soft power around the world. They probably do stand to gain from the US losing standing. However I very much doubt that the US losing standing will immediately lead to total Chinese dominance around the globe. China has a lot to deal with, surviving its impending demographic apocalypse. There was a time we feared Japan in the same way: nonstop economy, strong culture, they bought a lot of American assets and real estate… soon they’ll take over the world! They’re still here, and very powerful, but the “big bad” fears were overblown. I think similarly, China wants its historic provinces back, and would like to exert the same kind of influence over Asia that it once did, and be a global trade power, but all of that put together is still far less than the imperialism which America has actually achieved and maintained around the world. So yeah, an ascendant China may be one feature of this future but I don’t see the problem with that. I don’t start from a position of hating and fearing China.
The US didn’t have total dominance around the globe either. They just had a lot of soft power, a lot more than any other country.
Sure, but Japan was always relatively small. It was a country with a low population and few natural resources. China is a huge country with nearly 10% of the world’s population and is one of the largest countries in the world. There are no guarantees that it will still be a major force in 10 or 20 years, but it’s different from Japan which was a relatively small country that had a temporary niche in manufacturing certain kinds of goods.
The biggest issue with China is that they don’t believe in the right to free speech and free expression. While the US has been more of an outlier in allowing unfettered free speech until recently, free speech and free expression is pretty central to European identity.
The US has military bases, nuclear subs and aircraft carriers stationed around the world. That’s a little more than soft power. And our military spending has always been outsized.
This stopped being the yardstick for influence around WW1. Japan has the number 4 GDP in the world right now and they were number 2 for a while, very close to the US. China’s landmass and population don’t mean much to the rest of the world if all they represent is impoverished agrarians, which fairly describes a lot of China still.
They don’t. They believe in collectivism and order. However I don’t know that they aspire to bring Hanification to me here in California. Their ambitions are more regional. The US definitely reached around the entire globe.
For whom though? This is more myth than reality. The US deposed democratically elected leaders all over South America, and has supported dictators around the world if they offer us resources or control. Look at the Middle East. China has a long long way to go before they even begin to be as scary as the US has been for the last 50 years.
I’m not sure what “European identity” has to do with this conversation, which has been more about the US and China. I worry that we are veering into vague concepts like “western civilization” that are more myths for white supremacists than actual entities.