It is not in the interest of the US that this war finishes.
It’s important to dstinguish the interest of the US from the interest of Donald Trump and his traitorous junta.
It is not in Trump’s interest that the war ends without a Russian victory, since Trump is a Russian stooge who was put in office by Putin to deliver the victory that Russia has not been able to achieve by force of arms. Trump doesn’t want to be seen to be backstabbing Ukraine, so instead he has resorted to lip service not backed with any concrete measures that might change the balance of power in the conflict.
raised income via defence and energy contracts (incl. Oil & Gas)
US arms sales attributable to the Ukrainian conflict are relatively small part of the US’s entire defense market (which is vastly bloated and which has been used over several decades to achieve military Keynesianism).
A strong demand for oil and gas benefits Russia proportionately far more than it does the US, since fossil fuel exports are a far larger percentage of Russian export earnings. What else do they make that anyone wants? Vodka and caviar? Spyware-riddled antiviros software?
prolonged economic disadvantage to a competitor nation via sanctions
The only reason the sanctions are damaging to Russia is that Russia continues its aggression towards Ukraine and threats towards the non-Russian-vassal states in Europe. And the US is far from the only nation sanctioning Russia. And “competitor” in what, exactly?
Logic tells me Trump has had enough opportunities to completely shit on Ukraine and has not taken them. His position is IMHO unclear.
He’s balancing serving Putin and staying alive. There are factions within the US military and security state that are unlikely to tolerate a complete sell-out. Though I’d argue that the gross act of extortion what was minerals deal was an example of completely shitting on Ukraine, as was the arrogant and insulting behavior shown to Zelenskyy by Trump and Vance.
strong demand for oil and gas benefits Russia proportionately far more than it does the US…
I disagree. Income for gas exports has not risen LINK whereas US exports continue to do so
But that’s not quite what I said (perhaps because I didn’t say it all that clearly). Russia needs fossil-fuel export earnings much more than the US does, and because of Russia’s costs of production and shipping, its break-even point requires a higher market price than low-cost producers such as Saudi Arabia. But with Ukraine attacking pipelines and refineries, and with resources within the economy being commandeered to service immediate military needs, Russia’s ability to supply fossil fuels is constrained right now (that’s what one of your links is showing), and most of the European countries that used to buy from Russia have reduced their consumption in order to limit the scope of future blackmail.
Geopolitical influence overall (e.g. in the Middle East, Asia, Central Europe)
Influence is helpful. So what are the strategic objectives being served by that influence?
It’s important to dstinguish the interest of the US from the interest of Donald Trump and his traitorous junta.
It is not in Trump’s interest that the war ends without a Russian victory, since Trump is a Russian stooge who was put in office by Putin to deliver the victory that Russia has not been able to achieve by force of arms. Trump doesn’t want to be seen to be backstabbing Ukraine, so instead he has resorted to lip service not backed with any concrete measures that might change the balance of power in the conflict.
US arms sales attributable to the Ukrainian conflict are relatively small part of the US’s entire defense market (which is vastly bloated and which has been used over several decades to achieve military Keynesianism).
A strong demand for oil and gas benefits Russia proportionately far more than it does the US, since fossil fuel exports are a far larger percentage of Russian export earnings. What else do they make that anyone wants? Vodka and caviar? Spyware-riddled antiviros software?
The only reason the sanctions are damaging to Russia is that Russia continues its aggression towards Ukraine and threats towards the non-Russian-vassal states in Europe. And the US is far from the only nation sanctioning Russia. And “competitor” in what, exactly?
I am unsure. Logic tells me Trump has had enough opportunities to completely shit on Ukraine and has not taken them. His position is IMHO unclear.
I disagree. Income for gas exports has not risen LINK whereas US exports continue to do so LINK
Geopolitical influence overall (e.g. in the Middle East, Asia, Central Europe)
Excellent comments.
He’s balancing serving Putin and staying alive. There are factions within the US military and security state that are unlikely to tolerate a complete sell-out. Though I’d argue that the gross act of extortion what was minerals deal was an example of completely shitting on Ukraine, as was the arrogant and insulting behavior shown to Zelenskyy by Trump and Vance.
But that’s not quite what I said (perhaps because I didn’t say it all that clearly). Russia needs fossil-fuel export earnings much more than the US does, and because of Russia’s costs of production and shipping, its break-even point requires a higher market price than low-cost producers such as Saudi Arabia. But with Ukraine attacking pipelines and refineries, and with resources within the economy being commandeered to service immediate military needs, Russia’s ability to supply fossil fuels is constrained right now (that’s what one of your links is showing), and most of the European countries that used to buy from Russia have reduced their consumption in order to limit the scope of future blackmail.
Influence is helpful. So what are the strategic objectives being served by that influence?