Logic tells me Trump has had enough opportunities to completely shit on Ukraine and has not taken them. His position is IMHO unclear.
He’s balancing serving Putin and staying alive. There are factions within the US military and security state that are unlikely to tolerate a complete sell-out. Though I’d argue that the gross act of extortion what was minerals deal was an example of completely shitting on Ukraine, as was the arrogant and insulting behavior shown to Zelenskyy by Trump and Vance.
strong demand for oil and gas benefits Russia proportionately far more than it does the US…
I disagree. Income for gas exports has not risen LINK whereas US exports continue to do so
But that’s not quite what I said (perhaps because I didn’t say it all that clearly). Russia needs fossil-fuel export earnings much more than the US does, and because of Russia’s costs of production and shipping, its break-even point requires a higher market price than low-cost producers such as Saudi Arabia. But with Ukraine attacking pipelines and refineries, and with resources within the economy being commandeered to service immediate military needs, Russia’s ability to supply fossil fuels is constrained right now (that’s what one of your links is showing), and most of the European countries that used to buy from Russia have reduced their consumption in order to limit the scope of future blackmail.
Geopolitical influence overall (e.g. in the Middle East, Asia, Central Europe)
Influence is helpful. So what are the strategic objectives being served by that influence?
I am unsure. Logic tells me Trump has had enough opportunities to completely shit on Ukraine and has not taken them. His position is IMHO unclear.
I disagree. Income for gas exports has not risen LINK whereas US exports continue to do so LINK
Geopolitical influence overall (e.g. in the Middle East, Asia, Central Europe)
Excellent comments.
He’s balancing serving Putin and staying alive. There are factions within the US military and security state that are unlikely to tolerate a complete sell-out. Though I’d argue that the gross act of extortion what was minerals deal was an example of completely shitting on Ukraine, as was the arrogant and insulting behavior shown to Zelenskyy by Trump and Vance.
But that’s not quite what I said (perhaps because I didn’t say it all that clearly). Russia needs fossil-fuel export earnings much more than the US does, and because of Russia’s costs of production and shipping, its break-even point requires a higher market price than low-cost producers such as Saudi Arabia. But with Ukraine attacking pipelines and refineries, and with resources within the economy being commandeered to service immediate military needs, Russia’s ability to supply fossil fuels is constrained right now (that’s what one of your links is showing), and most of the European countries that used to buy from Russia have reduced their consumption in order to limit the scope of future blackmail.
Influence is helpful. So what are the strategic objectives being served by that influence?