Most Jewish people are pro Israel and amongst those who are most religious or Orthodox most rises to an overwhelming majority.

This isn’t pretending an ethic group has negative characteristics from a stereotype this is acknowledging an actual view most in a group have.

Most Americans are pro Christianity. Even if you view Christianity negatively it’s ok to say Americans are infatuated with the trappings if not the actual virtues of Christianity because it’s true even if this isn’t true of every single one of us.

To my understanding Jew is not perjorative but could be in context eg if offense is obviously intended or if mention of ethnicity or religion is otherwise irrelevant.

I’m aware that different states have different laws but in no state does possession of a weapon magically obviate all claims of self defense against an unarmed person.because possession of a weapon in no way obviates the risk to you that you are attempting to ameliorate by killing the fucker.

EG if someone broke into your home to rape and murder you you aren’t going to jail for stabbing them with a kitchen knife. If you disagree pick a specific state where you think the law works like that and I’ll be happy to look at the relevant info.

Unsafe doesn’t mean 100 incidence of death it means greater than tolerance levels of risk.

Some place not being safe is defined as greater than n rate of insert list of bad things per capita.

For most folks 100 in 100k murdered annually is pretty unsafe whereas 5 is pretty safe.

But even if it were 1000 in 100k the other 99k still living could argue its not that bad!

You basically can’t go to almost any population center without what the civilized world considers unacceptable risk whereas I can stroll through the “bad” part of my city at 2AM and mostly risk seeing gross people doing drugs.

Mexico is objectively unsafe. Some parts of states are too like st Louis

Sort of. They would be liable to alert on people who HAD consumed drugs earlier or had been around people that had consumed drugs. Furthermore it has been shown in a scientific study that dogs alert in part based on their owners suspicion even when not deliberately signaled to do so and since such suspicion is liable to fall on minorities just serves to justify the dogs masters pre-existing judgement.

White people and men believed that electing a white man who said that it was ok to privilege white men was ok.

Religious and conservatives saw him appointing judges doing their will.

Many believed he would cut their taxes and these tax cuts would stimulate the economy.

People don’t always vote for things they told you they voted for. People act shocked that we elected a brainless piece of human filth. The filth told them he would give them things they want. People didn’t vote for or against gaza on average they just don’t actually care.

I’m not going to individually go over 34 polls so lets pick the first arbitrarily

https://split-ticket.org/2024/07/10/we-polled-the-nation-heres-what-we-found/?ref=use-these-numbers.ghost.io

First one is about Biden it shows 13% going to third parties and 6% I don’t know. That is interesting but useless in determining anything of note. It’s also pretty wrong. More people always SAY they are going to vote third party than actually do. They lie to polls or to themselves.

Next we have Harris v Trump with 8% undecided equally useless for determining our counterfactual.

Next we have a question wherein they are arbitrarily asked if they would support “A candidate who” not a particular person but a arbitrary person who holds a given view. We learn that based on what people SAY there are always enough undecided to swing it either way but more people say they would vote for a democrat who holds those views. Now at last we have something interesting right well…

The problem is that something which adds blue voters in a blue state or too few to swing a red state is worth nothing in the final analysis. We know that some people say they would vote not for a actual candidate but for or against an imaginary hypothetical candidate but not if these gains would result in a single EC vote even if 100% true. The fact that again its a hypothetical person instead of the actual folks that people have strong feelings about is again also problematic.

In the end I’m no more convinced than I started. I’m not doing this 33 more to prove that the rest is equally trash because you wasted my time by not collecting a singular example instead of a huge list of bullshit.

When in the last 9 years or so have the polls been accurate enough to make this statement? The stated margin for error is usually big enough to go either way and the actual accuracy has been less than one would suppose from the margin of error.

This proves more people say they would support someone who says they will do something that aligns with what people say they support. It doesn’t mean the person actually shows up. Someone put on the spot may give you the answer you want and still not show up. I don’t think categorically you can prove the kind of thing you want to prove. If polls were remotely accurate we would be talking about president Hillary Clinton

Categorically Americans don’t give a fuck about what is happening to people in other countries. The same group most likely to say they do young people are the one that is least likely to even show up to spend 15 minutes voting. You can keep pretending that this shows what you think it shows but I will continue thinking that it shows people tell you the right answer when you put them on the spot.

I don’t think you can show via a survey after the fact that someone would have voted differently. I believe the entire idea is nonsense.

People saying that support when you present them with a moral issue isn’t the same thing as them actually turning up to vote. People have all sorts of opinions about what they ought to do and if you ask them if they intend to exercise, floss their teeth, and support the little chidrens in Africa. This doesn’t mean they will be doing ANYTHING of note given a chance.

Track actual attendance at gym, check their teeth, and ask for receipts for their donations to feed the starving kids. You’ll find that most of them fell short.

It is very very hard to predict who is going to win even when elections that aren’t all that close. Asking people how they would behave especially people who didn’t even bother to vote is fraught. People who aren’t happy about something are apt to say they would do something about it but they showed more about how motivated they are by not even bothering to show up in actual reality. I think anyone who tells you if you did this they would have voted for you is quite frankly full of shit.

White people voted for Trump because they believed they would be privileged. Men voted for him because they believed they would be privileged. Conservatives voted for him because he would appoint conservative judges Financially ignorant people voted for him because he would cut their taxes and encourage business. Republican’s voted for him because him being a Republican was far more important than any other factor. Most people who call themselves independent flatter themselves by saying so and in fact vote Red or Blue 95-99% of the time. Those who lean red were never going to vote for a non-white women running under the blue ticket.

None of these factors had anything to do with Israel or Gaza. People in America are selfish and self centered they were never going to vote differently based on Gaza.

Likewise nobody is owed good feelings by users

If they can’t do anything better than jellyfin which is fully free open source I don’t see why they should expect money. If Photoshop were paid for gimp they certainly wouldn’t deserve anything.

I think the bad feelings are by virtue of taking away something that WAS free. This is just basic human psych people are loss averse.

Polls have been close not only wildly inaccurate but so incredibly spread out that you could find a few to support literally anyone position after the fact.

It’s not clear the alternative strategy would have helped AT ALL. A very large portion of Americans actually believed that Trump would either help the economy or help the position of white folks and Christians. Everything else was a side show. That is why they elected him. Things were going pretty good economically before the pandemic and white Christians. That is why we elected essentially Hitler because we are stupid bigots.

The Israelis are the one’s actually murdering people

I think the thinking was that turning against Israel more publicly would have mostly garnered more entirely worthless votes in states that are already blue and risked losing at risk rust belt states.

If those voters would have been a bit smarter they could have threatened to stay home but actually voted against fascism then continued to petition the incoming regime which unlike Trump isn’t actually for genocide. Now there is a good chance for most of those folks you want to save being dead when its possible to reverse course IF its possible to reverse course and we don’t have a canceled election and a civil war thereafter.

The math doesn’t work because given enough rolls you literally always go bankrupt no matter what bankroll you start with. Take the simplest option a fair coin where you win on tails and lose on heads. Real actual random flips will contains runs of heads. Let N be the number of rolls required to bankrupt you for any value of N. The more you roll the more the probability of such a run increases towards 1.

You could end up bankrupting a billion dollar bank starting with 10 dollar bets. It’s only sound if you have a literally infinite bank. For any finite bank you just have to play longer to lose but you always end up losing.