

At some point OPEC will increase supply and the situation in Venezuela will stabilize
OPEC spare capacity has been a myth for quite some time even when it’s not shut in by transport problems, and Venezuela oil is not suitable for most world refineries and requires a shitton more expensive refining as it is extremely heavy, thick and sour. Neither can realistically make up the Hormuz deficit until infrastructure either bypasses Hormuz, or Venezuela begins domestically refining again, which will likely take 3-5 years with how decayed and sabotaged all their existing infrastructure is right now.
We are straight up headed for an oil cliff worse than 1973.




Sort of wrong metric. It gets weird in China because of the blurred lines between their government and private enterprise.
China’s official government debt is only 98% of GDP so slightly lower than the US right now and a lot less than the US is projected to be by end of 2026 (125%).
However China’s total debt, which includes both public-private enterprise (which their government effectively controls), and household debt, is around 330% of GDP. A lot of people use the total debt figure since it makes more sense for their economic structure but it’s not really “right”.
If we want to take the USA by the same metric, the government debt of 124% pales in comparison to the US total debt of… 719%.
Except that’s 600% of private enterprise and household/consumer debt which is not really government controlled and does not have a direct impact on the government’s solvency.