A U.S. intelligence assessment completed shortly before the United States and Israel launched a war in Iran had determined that American military intervention was not likely to lead to regime change in the Islamic Republic, according to two people familiar with the finding.
The National Intelligence Council’s assessment in February concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in Iran, even if the current leadership was killed, according to the two people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the classified report.
The determination undercuts the administration’s assertion that it can complete its objectives in Iran relatively quickly, perhaps in a matter of weeks. The administration has asserted that it was not seeking regime change in Iran, even as the strikes have taken out many figures in the Iranian leadership and President Donald Trump considers whom he would like to see lead the country.
Very different situations. Maduro was dictator of a relatively smaller nation that would not be the same without him there, while Iran is larger, more powerful, and has a leadership structure less dependent on one person. Even then, kidnapping Maduro does not mean his more pro US replacement is a reliable ally. She could be overthrown and is limited in how much she can help them.
You think Donald Trump is capable of any of this sort of nuance? Really?
He understands: Maduro weak, Iran not quite as weak. He just goes along with Israel’s plans because he appreciates how they kill brown people. Maduro was deposed because Venezuela was an easy target to show strength against. It accomplished nothing for the US just like the current war, but Trump never gave a shit about US interests.
All the more reason for him to declare regime change accomplished and victory then no? To say regime change is the guy at the top only, as he did before.
Nah, he doesn’t need to claim regime change because he can honestly declare victory far easier. Unlike most other efforts in the middle east, they actually are trying to accomplish something achievable: decimating Iran’s military to set them back several years and limit their danger in the near future. It’s not worth the cost and accomplishes little in the long run, but it is far more realistic than nation building or anything similar the US has tried.