No. Imagining an independent future for any state (including California and Texas) is pure cope. The states are so interdependent that attempting to secede would be ruinous for the state in question.

The only exceptions I can think of are Alaska and Hawaii, which might be able to survive if they found another country to keep them supplied and economically connected.

I disagree that there is any way to do it. Ultimately, people don’t want you there and are unhappy enough that they’re willing to die rather than cooperate. It is simply too expensive in terms of man hours, lives, and money to keep a population under occupation like that. At the very least, you need to do as the colonial powers did and exploit a local division to deputize some of the locals to rule on your behalf.

Yes, they win most of them. They mostly lose when they try to occupy a foreign country and do counterinsurgency.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_United_States